Today 19 September 2021, Sunday - Last updated at 18 September 2021
babasının taş gibi bir kadını bulup evlenmeye karar vermesi porno ve onu bir de kendi yaşadıkları eve getirmesi sonucunda mobil porno hayalini kurduğu seksi kadının üvey annesi gibi sex hikayeleri olduğunu fark eden genç adam seks tecrübesinin ve üst sex izle seviye olduğu dışarıdan bakıldığında çok net şekilde porno seyret belli olan üvey annesini hayal edip 31 çekerek düşlerken porno izle odanın oradan geçen mature üvey oğlunu görür Odaya hd porno gelip sikini kimin için kaldırdığını soran üvey annesiyle porno farkında olmadan yakınlaşan genç adam boşalmak mobil porno izle için olgun bir kadının hayallerini kurduğunu söyleyince mature porno izle sikini eline alıp amına sokmadan çıplak şekilde üzerine çıktı
Abonamente

International 22 June 2015, at 09:38

This statistic shows how the nature of war is changing around the world

Marime Font

The United Nation’s refugee agency recently released its annual report on people displaced by war around the world, and the news is bad:

The number of people forcibly displaced at the end of 2014 had risen to a staggering 59.5 million compared to 51.2 million a year earlier and 37.5 million a decade ago.

The increase represents the biggest leap ever seen in a single year. Moreover, the report said the situation was likely to worsen still further. The report focuses on raw estimates of displaced persons, but I think it makes more sense to look at this group as a share of world population. The number of people on the planet has increased by more than half a billion in the past decade, so we might expect to see some growth in the number of forcibly displaced persons even if the amount of conflict worldwide had held steady.


The chart below plots annual totals from the UNHCR report as a share of mid-year world population, as estimated by the US Census Bureau.

The number of observations in this time series is too small to use Bayesian change point detection to estimate the likelihood that the upturn after 2012 marks a change in the underlying data-generating process. I’m not sure we need that kind of firepower, though.

After holding more or less steady for at least six years, the share of world population forcibly displaced by war has increased by more than 50 percent in just two years, from about one of every 200 people to one of every 133 people. Equally important, reports from field workers indicate that this problem only continues to grow in 2015.

I don’t think I would call this upturn a “paradigm change,” as UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres did. But there is little doubt that the problem of displacement by war has worsened significantly since 2012.

In historical terms, just how bad is it?

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to say for sure. The time series in the UNHCR report only starts in 2004, and a note warns that methodological changes in 2007 render the data before that year incomparable to the more recent estimates.

The UNHCR describes the 2014 figure as “the highest level ever recorded.” That’s technically true but not very informative since recording started only recently. A longer time series assembled by the Center for Systemic Peace (here) supports the claim that the latest raw estimate is the largest ever. But as a share of world population, it’s probably still a bit lower than the levels seen in the post–Cold War tumult of the early 1990s (see here).

Other relevant data affirm the view that, while clearly worsening, the intensity of armed conflict around the world is not at historically high levels, not even for the past few decades. Here is a plot of annual counts of battle-related deaths (low, high, and best estimates) according to the latest edition of UCDP’s data set on that topic (here), which covers the period 1989–2013.

Note that these figures have not been adjusted for changes in world population.

We see a similar pattern in the Center for Systemic Peace’s Major Episodes of Political Violence data set (second row here), which covers the whole post-WWII period. For the chart below, I have separately summed the data set’s scalar measure of conflict intensity for two types of conflict, civil and interstate (see the codebook for details).

Like the UCDP data, these figures show a local increase in the past few years that nevertheless remains well below the prior peak, which came when the Soviet Union fell apart.

I’ll wrap this up by pinning a note in something I see when comparing the shorter-term UCDP estimates to the UNHCR estimates on forcibly displaced persons: adjusting for population, it looks like armed conflicts may be killing fewer but displacing more than they used to.

That impression is bolstered by a glance at UCDP data on trends in deaths from “intentional attacks on civilians by governments and formally organized armed groups,” which UCDP calls “one-sided violence” (here).

As the plot below shows, the recent upsurge in warfare has not yet produced a large increase in the incidence of these killings, either. The line is bending upward, but it remains close to historical lows.

So, in the tumult of the past few years, it looks like the rate of population displacement has surged while the rate of battle deaths has risen more slowly and the rate of one-sided violence targeting civilians hasn’t risen much at all.

If that’s true, then why?

Improvements in medical care in conflict zones are probably part of the story, but I wonder if changes in norms and values, and in the international institutions and practices instantiating them, aren’t also shaping these trends. Governments that in the past might have wantonly killed populations they regarded as threats now seem more inclined to press those populations by other means — not always, but more often.

Meanwhile, international organizations are readier than ever to assist those groups under pressure by feeding and sheltering them, drawing attention to their miseries, and sometimes even protecting them. The trend may be fragile, and the causality is impossible to untangle with confidence, but it deserves contemplation.

businessinsider.com

 Urmărește știrile Timpul.md pe Telegram
blog comments powered by Disqus

Din aceeaşi secţiune

Cele mai noi ştiri de azi

News 16 September 2021, at: 18:28

BEMOL accused of manipulating public opinion

BEMOL accused of manipulating public opinion

 In the context of the false and misleading interpretations spread by Bemol Retail SRL (“Bemol Retail”) and close media of the judgment of the Amsterdam Court of Appeal dated 7 September 2021, Danube Logistics SRL , as a general investor and operator of Giurgiulesti International...

( ) Read all

News 28 August 2021, at: 09:45

 Let me first congratulate all of you with the 30th anniversary of the independence of the Republic of Moldova. On this occasion one can recall that even before declaring its own independence, Moldova became the first country to recognise the restored independence of the Republic of...

( ) Read all

News 30 April 2021, ora: 14:43

Balkaninsight Failed Attack on Court Leaves Moldova’s Socialists Wounded

Failed Attack on Court Leaves Moldova’s Socialists Wounded

 The Moldovan Socialists’ desperate campaign against the country’s Constitutional Court has failed to stall early elections and has left them looking more tarnished than ever.

( ) Read all

News 14 April 2021, ora: 09:08

Reuters Biden proposes summit with Putin amid tensions over Ukraine

Biden proposes summit with Putin amid tensions over Ukraine

 U.S. President Joe Biden proposed a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a telephone call on Tuesday in which he stressed the U.S. commitment to Ukraine's territorial integrity and voiced concern about a Russian military build-up in Crimea and on Ukraine's borders,...

( ) Read all

News 22 March 2021, ora: 12:28

EBRD seeks to safeguard operations of Moldova’s Giurgiulesti port

EBRD seeks to safeguard operations of Moldova’s Giurgiulesti port

 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is enforcing rights under its financing and security documents with regards to Danube Logistics Holding BV’s shareholding in Danube Logistics SRL (Danube Logistics), the operator of Giurgiulesti International Free Port in the...

( ) Read all

News 5 March 2021, ora: 10:48

European Business Association: Tne actions against Danube Logistics SRL have the goal of expropriation of the current shareholders of their investment

European Business Association: Tne actions against  Danube Logistics SRL  have the goal of expropriation of the current shareholders of their investment

 EBA Moldova is following with great concern the latest developments regarding Danube Logistics SRL, the owner and operator of Giurgiulesti International Free Port, the only port of the Republic of Moldova.

( ) Read all

News 3 March 2021, ora: 09:15

EBRD will appeal imposed external administration of assets of Moldova’s Danube Logistics SRL

EBRD will appeal imposed external administration of assets of Moldova’s Danube Logistics SRL Din editia print

 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) intends to fight a legal decision to impose external administration over the assets of Danube Logistics SRL, the operator of Giurgiulesti International Free Port in Moldova.

( ) Read all

News 22 February 2021, ora: 12:19

Baltic states warn EU on China and Russia espionage

Baltic states warn EU on China and Russia espionage

 Lithuania has banned a Chinese tech firm on security grounds, while Estonia warned the EU on the dangers of both Chinese and Russian espionage.

( ) Read all

News 21 December 2020, ora: 09:26

Local roads bring greater connectivity and support to rural communities in Moldova

Local roads bring greater connectivity and support to rural communities in Moldova

One August day in the mid-1960s, my parents boarded a bus in the village of Hartopul Mare in the center of Moldova to travel to the capital Chisinau, determined to get a better education and better jobs in the Soviet planned economy. It was a 90-minute trip in a vehicle packed with about 50...

( ) Read all

News 4 December 2020, ora: 09:48

Moldova: Statement by the Spokesperson on the latest legislative proposals

Moldova: Statement by the Spokesperson on the latest legislative proposals

 On Thursday 3 December, the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova voted on a number of legislative proposals, including on limitations of Presidential powers, tabled in a hasty and non-transparent manner.

( ) Read all

News 23 November 2020, ora: 12:34

7 dead in Russia for drinking hand sanitizer after running out of liquor — reports

7 dead in Russia for drinking hand sanitizer after running out of liquor — reports

 Seven people died from methanol (wood alcohol) poisoning after drinking hand sanitizer at a party in Russia. Nine people, with ages ranging from 27 to 69 years old, were partying when they opted to drink hand sanitizer after running out of alcoholic beverages, according to local Russian...

( ) Read all

News 1 November 2020, ora: 06:40

Danube Logistics: Chisinau Appeals Court declares Bemol's actions against Danube Logistics unlawful

Danube Logistics: Chisinau Appeals Court declares Bemol's actions against Danube Logistics unlawful

 The Chisinau Appeals Court has declared Bemol's actions against Danube Logistics unlawful, according to a press release of Danube Logistics SRL and Danube Logistics Holding BV.

( ) Read all

News 3 October 2020, ora: 20:41

Dainius Žalimas The decision of the Constitutional Court of Belarus is an arbitrary act

The decision of the  Constitutional Court of Belarus is an arbitrary act

 On 25 August 2020 the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Belarus (thereinafter – the CCRB) adopted a document entitled the “Constitutional Legal Position on the Protection of the Constitutional Order” (Kонституционно-правовaя позиция по...

( ) Read all

News 21 September 2020, ora: 08:07

FinCEN Files: Deutsche Bank tops list of suspicious transactions

FinCEN Files: Deutsche Bank tops list of suspicious transactions

Leaked documents shed a light on Deutsche Bank's central role in facilitating financial transactions deemed suspicious. Many of these could have enabled the circumvention of sanctions on Iran and Russia.

( ) Read all

News 8 September 2020, ora: 09:11

How the Red Terror set a macabre course for the Soviet Union

How the Red Terror set a macabre course for the Soviet Union

In 1918, the Bolshevik regime launched a state-sanctioned campaign of mass killings and detentions to silence political enemies—laying the foundation for decades of violence in the U.S.S.R.

( ) Read all

News 4 September 2020, ora: 22:58

Lithuania to sanction Belarus’ Constitutional Court officials

Lithuania to sanction Belarus’ Constitutional Court officials

 Lithuania may impose national sanctions on officials from the Belarusian Constitutional Court, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said on Thursday.

( ) Read all

News 26 August 2020, ora: 10:54

How Romania is Handling Cybersecurity Threats

How Romania is Handling Cybersecurity Threats

In 2013, Romania approved a national cybersecurity strategy and began its implementation. It wasn't the only EU country to take action. 

( ) Read all

News 20 July 2020, ora: 10:26

How objectivity in journalism became a matter of opinion

How objectivity in journalism became a matter of opinion

In America, political and commercial strains have led to questions about its value and meaning

( ) Read all

Politics 1 July 2020, ora: 10:19

What Vladimir Putin Tells Us about His Relations with the West

What Vladimir Putin Tells Us about His Relations with the West

Putin claims the EU resolution is part of “a deliberate policy aimed at destroying the postwar world order.” The truth is less dramatic and more illuminating.

( ) Read all

News 12 June 2020, ora: 12:33

Foreign Policy New Report Exposes Brutal Methods of Russia’s Wagner Group

New Report Exposes Brutal Methods of Russia’s Wagner Group

 How a shady network of operatives serves as the tip of the spear in Russia’s global influence efforts with almost no accountability.

( ) Read all

News 3 June 2020, ora: 10:55

EU’s top diplomat says no to Russia rejoining G7

EU’s top diplomat says no to Russia rejoining G7

 The European Union doesn't think Russia should rejoin the G7.

( ) Read all

News 27 May 2020, ora: 19:30

Moldovan court facilitates attempt to expropriate European investment in Moldova’s Seaport

Moldovan court facilitates attempt to expropriate European investment in Moldova’s Seaport

 On 12 May 2020 the Chișinău Appeals Court barred Danube Logistics SRL from transferring funds to its Dutch shareholder Danube Logistics Holding BV. Danube Logistics SRL is the operator of Giurgiulești International Free Port located on the maritime section of the Danube. 

( ) Read all
Current tier / breakpoint: xs sm md lg xl (= visible only on this breakpoint)

.hidden-xs-down .hidden-sm-down .hidden-md-down .hidden-lg-down

.hidden-xs-up .hidden-sm-up .hidden-md-up .hidden-lg-up .hidden-xl

.hidden-xs (only) .hidden-sm (only) .hidden-md (only) .hidden-lg (only) .hidden-xl (only)